A PART OF NY A Macro View on the minutiae

As we did not go down immediately today it became clear that our preferred count was cancelled.  The next highest probability count was the Friday saw the bottom of [i] – since then we have come through a W-X-Y zig-zag.   Now the question is was-that-it? or was it just the “a” wave of the correction.   Today felt like a final wave up – No Volume on the SPY – however the market will tell us – watch the banks for an indicator.  

I have relabled the chart and marked the 2 possible tops of [ii], 1097 or 1,100.  I also added the (X) and (Z) should we go upto 1,100.    A break below 1,044 will confirm that [ii] has completed and that  [iii] is underway.

SPXEW021510Night

 Also update is the SPY price target range projection chart.

SPY021510

First, the chart:

SPX Leading diagonal

Now from Elliot Wave Theory:

Leading Diagonal

When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the first wave position of impulses and in the A wave position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves one and four and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5, or 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 10) does fit the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a “continuation” message as opposed to the “termination” implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. This pattern must be noted because the analyst could mistake it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure 5.

The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of momentum in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, phenomena such as short term speed of movement and breadth (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands.

.So if this was a leading diagonal as a wave 1 down, followed by a 38.2 retrracement (as a wave 2), then we are now in a wave 3 down.   If this is the case then my estimate of 1056 on the SPX could be just the start.  I am going to leave my estimate as is fo now and see how the wave starts to sub-divide