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This market is sitting under the sword of Damocles. It is happy gorging, laughing and partying and refuses to look up at the sword that is waiting to come crashing down. I think it will fall and it will fall this year. That over now to the charts…
First The SP500 Elliot Wave chart of the Entire Rally
Now a close up of the last waves (It is either over or needs another push up to 1155 – 1160).
Trading chart on the Russell 2000 (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Trading Chart on the XRT (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Long Term Dow Industrials
Short Term Dow Industrials (has tried 3 times to get back into the Bear Channel – 4th Time should be the treat)
Long Term SPY
Short Term SPY (imitating Icarus)
Long Term VIX (Waiting for it to return into the LT Channel
I saw something over at Wave Principle that made me spend a bit of time playing with excel. Taking the S&P500 and chucking a couple of log curves around them came up with a very interesting chart. See below.
SPX
More on this as I work out if this could be a useful tool.
Looking at the SPY over a longterm with Fib Fans. You will notice both the devestating effect of breaking through a Fib Fan Line and also the confusion whilst at the line. The recent ups and downs of the market can be explained by this preparation to break through a major level of support (or a huge bounce if it cannot break through).
SPY Arithmetic Scale
Chart 2: This char is the same, however I have used log scale. In this chart we have already gone through support and have been retesting the now resistant trend line.
SPY Log Scale
You can see the retesting in more detail when we zoom into the intra-day activity.
SPY Log Scale Recent
Also look at the Fib Lines, from the March low on the S&P Futures. This should be a make or break week.
SP Futures Arithmetic Scale
First the chart:
SPY Target
Okay, based on my flimsy Tech Analysis, I think the current bounce will end Monday or Tuesday, somewhere between 106.57 and 108.21. This should be followed by a steep decline to 101.28 (or below).
First the two year chart..
ES_F
As you can see we entered the Bear Channel, and then finished resting on top of it. A more detailed lok at the day, where you can see the prices dancing around the trend line is here..
ES_F
Lets see what happens on Mutual Fund Tuesday.
Okay lets look at 2 charts. First the daily ES over the past 3 years:
S&P Futures
Then the last 20 days:
S&P
We are now sitting on top of the bear channel. Should we succesfully close in the channel then look out below. The bulls (NY Fed) probably will fight such a move though, so be prepared for some kind of bounce.
