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I am just going to post updates on my top charts: Russell 2000, Dow Industrial, XRT, SPY and VIX. As far as the SP500 EW count goes – I’ll go with my earlier post from this morning – we are still in Primary 2 up (although in the final throes) – this recount will require quite a bit of work and so will come in a later post.
Okay Russell 2000 Trading chart – you can see it tried to push above the exhaustion zone today (on no volume) – unbelievable.
Now the Retail ETF XRT – same comments as yesterday
Now the Long Term Industrial
Now the 60 day Industrials
Now the Long Term SPY
And the 60 days SPY
And a new chart on the VIX – I am watching before re-posting an EW count on this.
Until I am clearer on the EW counts I am going to stick with the trading charts on these 2. Today both indicies hung at the top of their exhaustion zone. Volume was dire. Hardly anyone was interested in Selling however there was little interest in buyng at these price levels. I would expect a reversion to the 20 day EMA on these indexes.
First the Updated Russell 2000 chart
And now the updated XRT chart
So, from the perspective of the russell 2000, here we are back in Primary 2 up. The major indicies have not confirmed this, which is bearish. Additionally I’d like to share a straight trading chart:
Russell 2000 at top of exhaustion Territory
Only once in the entire rally from March 2009 has the RUT managed to get to the top of the exhaustion buy zone, and that was Sep 17 2009. At the very minimum we shuld get a reversionto the 20 day EMA, which is currently 633.
[Update at 5.33pm- Changed the SP500 chart - I posted the wrong one earlier]
First some humour to make up for a sucky day:
- I am thinking of changing the name of the blog, from “A Part of NY”, to “Clueless in Manhattan”.
- My counts have been so bad lately I am thinking of applying for a job at EWI.
Anyway humour over – this week should mark where we are going- we are either going to go down hard, or we are going to continue living in the matrix and the rally will reignite itself. Tommorrow needs to be a down day or most of my charts below will be questionable.
Okay here are my primary charts updated.
First the Russell 2000. Once the market opened today my friday call was immediately invalidated . I expect this one to be better.
Now the updated count on the SP500. I have redone this as a (a)-(b)-(c) from Feb 5 with wave (c) completing an expanded flat, the final wave 0f (c)either completed today or will very soon.
A look at the dow
Another look at the down based on my ultra bearish chart (click here to read).
Next week will confirm or deny this chart..
Just updating the charts. The targets remain the same (see Summary of Market Calls). First the 5 year with trading plan.
5 year RUT.x
And the past couple of weeks…
Russell 2000
The chart..
rut2yr
And the 60 day view..
rut
I am suprised that the decline is not much steeper. It seems to be slower than all the other major indicies. Lack of Credit should impact the smaller companies the most. A few companies going into chapter 7/11 should drive some speculation/liquidity out of this index I suppose.
rut
Slightly updated the plan, but essentially the same as the last one.
Okay here is my trading plan for the russell 2000 in 2010…
russell 2010
Latest chart..
Russell 2000
Now is the time that tests all traders, both bull and bear. We are in a narrow range within a primary 2 wave up. Have we seen the high? I thought so, however, even a bear such as myself is having doubts. I think the best course of action is to play the range, until a the market picks a direction.
