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Market update and EW count update

  • April 1, 2010 6:18 pm

Market Update

Another Groundhog day in the Tortoise rally.  Gap-up, sell off on volume, prices rise back up on no volume, ramp into the close.  Distribution looks like this, which should be worrying to anyone buying at these price points.

The employment numbers are out tomorrow and the Media has been in a frenzy on how great they are going to be.  Complicating matters is the fact that the market is closed tomorrow, although the bond market will be open for a while. This clearly led to a number of traders wanting to go into the holiday weekend flat – which caused some volatility.

We also got a new high on the SP500 today which is annoying as I then had to update my hourly  counts.  Now on my bear counts we are still in Primary 2 up in both of my highest probability estimates.  The Highest Probability count also still has us in (a) of [Z] again, the next best alternative is that we’ll finish P2 next week, probably on Magic-Manic-Monday.

In the Bull count I still have us in a wave [iv] which is looking increasingly like sideways action, which means the price may not go down much to accomplish its goals.  After the counts I’ll give a quick update on the SP500Feb 5 Support/Resistance line and the Nasdaq Multi year contracting diagonal.

Bear Counts

The Daily

The Highest Probability Hourly

The Best Alternative hourly

The Bull Counts

The Daily

The Hourly

SP500 Feb 5 Support Resistance Line

Last nigh I mentioned that in this particular rally, where the indices cannot go down, there would be continued retests on the trend line.  When I woke up this morning I thought that Think or Swim (TOS) was playing an April Fools Day joke on me.  In the low volume overnight session the SPX was ready to well above the resistance line  and almost at the March 2009 Rally resistance line.  Yet Another Exhaustion gap buying frenzy I wondered, with a barely audible sigh.  Through the day we managed to breach the support line again and then in the last hour went upto do a backtest on it and ended the day just below the trend line.

Here is the trend line from Feb 5

and a close up of the last several days

Nasdaq Contracting Diagonal Update

For those of you who have not seen the Monthly count on this you should first look at the chart below.

Now look at the past few weeks – You can see that the NASDAQ Composite has been idling around the Trend line.

Indicators

And Finally, some indicators on the SP500 so you can look at some bearish divergencies.

Nasdaq Composite Contracting Diagonal Updated

  • March 29, 2010 6:30 pm

Here is an updated Monthly on the Nasdaq.  I have added a fib retracement from the Sep 1995 start of the diagonal to the Oct 2007.   We re now sitting at the 23.6% retracement and just above the Diagonal resistance line (wave 4’s have throwovers).  After the monthly chart I’ll show you the hourly close-up.

And the close up

I’ll continue to monitor this.

Some alternative counts with some sugar

  • March 28, 2010 10:39 am

[Update at 3:41pm: I have added the 20 Month MA to the Nasdaq Composite chart, as that would be a good point for the bounce to occur. ]

One of the things that has been troubling me about the major US indices is that, although it looks like we bottomed on March 9, a lot of the Market leaders (e.g. AMZN, GS) appeared to bottom in November.  This is also true of several of the global indices.  I have been wondering if we saw an irregular bottom.  I have  tried to put some counts together to show this. 

First the Russell 2000

Now the Dow Industrials

Also I wanted to update the contracting diagonal count on the Nasdaq

And give you a close up 

And completely unrelated, some sugar

The Nasdaq – AKA the Diagonal

  • March 22, 2010 8:46 am

The diagonal – An Interesting pattern on this index, which would suggest another significant drop and then a rise to new highs.   The question is can it completely separate from the other indices?

Nasdaq – where will the “correction” end?

  • January 30, 2010 12:38 pm

Chart

Updated nadsaq

Updated nadsaq

Each time we have bounced off the Primary Bear Channel (see highlighted parts) we have gone down to retest the 64 week MA.  This is now at 1,836.  So that is where I think we are heading now.