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This market is sitting under the sword of Damocles. It is happy gorging, laughing and partying and refuses to look up at the sword that is waiting to come crashing down. I think it will fall and it will fall this year. That over now to the charts…
First The SP500 Elliot Wave chart of the Entire Rally
Now a close up of the last waves (It is either over or needs another push up to 1155 – 1160).
Trading chart on the Russell 2000 (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Trading Chart on the XRT (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Long Term Dow Industrials
Short Term Dow Industrials (has tried 3 times to get back into the Bear Channel – 4th Time should be the treat)
Long Term SPY
Short Term SPY (imitating Icarus)
Long Term VIX (Waiting for it to return into the LT Channel
I am just going to post updates on my top charts: Russell 2000, Dow Industrial, XRT, SPY and VIX. As far as the SP500 EW count goes – I’ll go with my earlier post from this morning – we are still in Primary 2 up (although in the final throes) – this recount will require quite a bit of work and so will come in a later post.
Okay Russell 2000 Trading chart – you can see it tried to push above the exhaustion zone today (on no volume) – unbelievable.
Now the Retail ETF XRT – same comments as yesterday
Now the Long Term Industrial
Now the 60 day Industrials
Now the Long Term SPY
And the 60 days SPY
And a new chart on the VIX – I am watching before re-posting an EW count on this.
Until I am clearer on the EW counts I am going to stick with the trading charts on these 2. Today both indicies hung at the top of their exhaustion zone. Volume was dire. Hardly anyone was interested in Selling however there was little interest in buyng at these price levels. I would expect a reversion to the 20 day EMA on these indexes.
First the Updated Russell 2000 chart
And now the updated XRT chart
Right now the secondary indicies are roaring ahead and the blue chips are doing nothing. What dos that mean? When you get index non-cofirmation in a liquidity driven market it means that there is not enough cash to take all of the indicies upto new highs. when the secondary indicies are the ones going upto new highs and the blue chips are stagnant it means the remaining cash is all speculative. This is usually a sign that you are in the final stage of the rally. Speculative money is the quickest out.
[Update at 5.33pm- Changed the SP500 chart - I posted the wrong one earlier]
First some humour to make up for a sucky day:
- I am thinking of changing the name of the blog, from “A Part of NY”, to “Clueless in Manhattan”.
- My counts have been so bad lately I am thinking of applying for a job at EWI.
Anyway humour over – this week should mark where we are going- we are either going to go down hard, or we are going to continue living in the matrix and the rally will reignite itself. Tommorrow needs to be a down day or most of my charts below will be questionable.
Okay here are my primary charts updated.
First the Russell 2000. Once the market opened today my friday call was immediately invalidated . I expect this one to be better.
Now the updated count on the SP500. I have redone this as a (a)-(b)-(c) from Feb 5 with wave (c) completing an expanded flat, the final wave 0f (c)either completed today or will very soon.
A look at the dow
Another look at the down based on my ultra bearish chart (click here to read).
Next week will confirm or deny this chart..
Just updating the charts. The targets remain the same (see Summary of Market Calls). First the 5 year with trading plan.
5 year RUT.x
And the past couple of weeks…
Russell 2000
The chart..
rut2yr
And the 60 day view..
rut
I am suprised that the decline is not much steeper. It seems to be slower than all the other major indicies. Lack of Credit should impact the smaller companies the most. A few companies going into chapter 7/11 should drive some speculation/liquidity out of this index I suppose.
rut
Slightly updated the plan, but essentially the same as the last one.
Okay here is my trading plan for the russell 2000 in 2010…
russell 2010
