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What really happened on May the 6th

  • May 15, 2010 11:08 am

Look at the chart below.  When the Dow crossed this trend line the trading bots all stopped buying, at the same time, and then they started selling, all at the same time.

A trend line of import

A trend line of import

Some alternative counts with some sugar

  • March 28, 2010 10:39 am

[Update at 3:41pm: I have added the 20 Month MA to the Nasdaq Composite chart, as that would be a good point for the bounce to occur. ]

One of the things that has been troubling me about the major US indices is that, although it looks like we bottomed on March 9, a lot of the Market leaders (e.g. AMZN, GS) appeared to bottom in November.  This is also true of several of the global indices.  I have been wondering if we saw an irregular bottom.  I have  tried to put some counts together to show this. 

First the Russell 2000

Now the Dow Industrials

Also I wanted to update the contracting diagonal count on the Nasdaq

And give you a close up 

And completely unrelated, some sugar

Chart Roundup and SPX Elliott Wave Count

  • March 10, 2010 4:32 pm

This market is sitting under the sword of Damocles.  It is happy gorging, laughing and partying and refuses to look up at the sword that is waiting to come crashing down.  I think it will fall and it will fall this year.  That over now to the charts…

First The SP500 Elliot Wave chart of the Entire Rally

Now a close up of the last waves (It is either over or needs another push up to 1155 – 1160).

Trading chart on the Russell 2000 (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)

Trading Chart on the XRT (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)

Long Term Dow Industrials

Short Term Dow Industrials (has tried 3 times to get back into the Bear Channel – 4th Time should be the treat)

Long Term SPY

Short Term SPY (imitating Icarus) 

Long Term VIX (Waiting for it to return into the LT Channel

Updated SPY and DJIA

  • March 8, 2010 4:22 pm

Yawn – nothing happened today – which, for a Mutual Fund Monday is almost like a decline. 

For those of you who read my friday updates on the Industrials and the SPY (Sp500 ETF) you know that on Friday both indicies jumped out of their bear channels and I am watching to see if they will get back into them this week.  Here are updated charts. 

60 Day SPY

5year SPY

60 Day Industrials

5 Year Industrials

As you can see they are both still above their Bear Channells.   This week should set the direction for the next few months.

A mega rally day. So what now

  • March 5, 2010 5:42 pm

 

This is not the day the teddy bears have their picnic.  Today’s NYSE a/d was 5.34/1 which is the strongest advance since July 15 2009, although on embarrassingly low volume.

My count for the Russell 2000 is already blown.  I’ll do a new count for the SP500 over the weekend and the VIX count looks like it needs a complete refresh.

When it comes to Elliot Wave the Dow is still considered the master index, as it better reflects sentiment, so let us continue to look at the macro view that I have been publishing lately.

First the long term View

Long Term

Now the last few years

Then the last 60 days.

Notice how the Dow crossed the line today, the first time since Jan 19.  This means that, for the bearish case to remain intact, the dow need to go down on Monday – back into the bear channel, and go down hard.  Otherwise we could be looking at another uptrend.

Industrials

  • March 5, 2010 12:03 pm

[Update at 12.30pm - added the Long Term Industrial Chart at the end]

Okay if the dow goes much higher then it will jump out of my bear channel.  If we are really in a bear market, with the rise from last march being a Bear Market Rally, then the market needs to start going down now.  If it doesnt then i may have to buy some horns.

And a close up on the dow

As you can see, we hit the 78.6% retracement (from the Jan 19 decline) this morning.

And just in case you have not seen it before here is my Long term prediction.

Index non-confirmation

  • March 2, 2010 1:33 pm

Right now the secondary indicies are roaring ahead and the blue chips are doing nothing.   What dos that mean?  When you get index non-cofirmation in a liquidity driven market it means that there is not enough cash to take all of the indicies upto new highs.  when the secondary indicies are the ones going upto new highs and the blue chips are stagnant it means the remaining cash is all speculative.  This is usually a sign that you are in the final stage of the rally.   Speculative money is the quickest out.

Todays updates

  • March 1, 2010 5:00 pm

[Update at 5.33pm- Changed the SP500 chart - I posted the wrong one earlier]

First some humour to make up for a sucky day:

  • I am thinking of changing the name of the blog, from “A Part of NY”, to “Clueless in Manhattan”. 
  • My counts have been so bad lately I am thinking of applying for a job at EWI.

Anyway humour over –  this week should mark where we are going- we are either going to go down hard, or we are going to continue living in the matrix and the rally will reignite itself.   Tommorrow needs to be a down day or most of my charts below will be questionable.

Okay here are my primary charts updated.

First the Russell 2000.  Once the market opened today my friday call was immediately invalidated .  I expect this one to be better.

Now the updated count on the SP500.   I have redone this as a (a)-(b)-(c)  from Feb 5 with wave (c) completing an expanded flat,  the final wave 0f (c)either completed today or will very soon.

A look at the dow

Another look at the down based on my ultra bearish chart (click here to read).

Dow Industrials

  • February 27, 2010 8:00 pm

An interesting perspective on fib arcs

Some people think this chart a little bearish.  Okay it is a bit bearish as it implies we are going to have a correction to around dow 7770.  However it is nowhere near my longer term bearish targets, which for the first time I am putting out in a couple of charts.   I have labelled the 5 Primary waves with P1 thru p5 for all you Elliot wave aficionados.  First is the chart with a log scale:

And then just an arithmetic scale

Now that’s bearish!!!

How now Dow?

  • February 26, 2010 5:47 pm

This is the chart I put together last weekend with this weeks prices added.  The key inflection points were all there.