Several attempts to re-enter the channel this week, including 1 puncture. Next week is key.
Long Term Chart
Short Term Chart
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Dow Industrials Bear Channel charts updated
Chart Roundup and SPX Elliott Wave Count
This market is sitting under the sword of Damocles. It is happy gorging, laughing and partying and refuses to look up at the sword that is waiting to come crashing down. I think it will fall and it will fall this year. That over now to the charts…
First The SP500 Elliot Wave chart of the Entire Rally
Now a close up of the last waves (It is either over or needs another push up to 1155 – 1160).
Trading chart on the Russell 2000 (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Trading Chart on the XRT (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Long Term Dow Industrials
Short Term Dow Industrials (has tried 3 times to get back into the Bear Channel – 4th Time should be the treat)
Long Term SPY
Short Term SPY (imitating Icarus)
Long Term VIX (Waiting for it to return into the LT Channel
Industrials
[Update at 12.30pm - added the Long Term Industrial Chart at the end]
Okay if the dow goes much higher then it will jump out of my bear channel. If we are really in a bear market, with the rise from last march being a Bear Market Rally, then the market needs to start going down now. If it doesnt then i may have to buy some horns.
And a close up on the dow
As you can see, we hit the 78.6% retracement (from the Jan 19 decline) this morning.
And just in case you have not seen it before here is my Long term prediction.
Todays updates
[Update at 5.33pm- Changed the SP500 chart - I posted the wrong one earlier]
First some humour to make up for a sucky day:
- I am thinking of changing the name of the blog, from “A Part of NY”, to “Clueless in Manhattan”.
- My counts have been so bad lately I am thinking of applying for a job at EWI.
Anyway humour over – this week should mark where we are going- we are either going to go down hard, or we are going to continue living in the matrix and the rally will reignite itself. Tommorrow needs to be a down day or most of my charts below will be questionable.
Okay here are my primary charts updated.
First the Russell 2000. Once the market opened today my friday call was immediately invalidated . I expect this one to be better.
Now the updated count on the SP500. I have redone this as a (a)-(b)-(c) from Feb 5 with wave (c) completing an expanded flat, the final wave 0f (c)either completed today or will very soon.
A look at the dow
Another look at the down based on my ultra bearish chart (click here to read).
Key DJIA price levels for Monday
Okay time to re-look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average – the master index of social mood. below you will see a chart with a lot of lines. A first glance they are going to appear meaningless. I will, therefore explain them:
The 3 blue lines (dotted, solid, dotted): This is a key support-resistance line going back to 1921. The solid blue line is the mid point and the dotted lines are the top and the low – think of it as a line drawn with a crayon. To see more on this then look at the last post on the subject.
The Green Fan lines: Fib fan lines drawn off the the Jan 19 high to the Feb 5 low.
The Purple Fan lines: These are the bottom up fan lines drawn from Feb 5 to Feb 9. As you can see the down has been traversing between the 50% and the 61.8% fan lines since in entered it on Feb 16.
The black lines: These are the key retracement levels from the Jan 19 top to the Feb 5 low.
After the chart I’ll go through some key price points.
djiakeylevels
Now the key levels to watch for, on Monday, are:
10,560: The mid point on a resistance support line going back to 1921. This should provide significant resistance and, if penetrated will offer a lot of support.
10,549: 78.6 retracement of the fall from Jan 19 to Feb 5. A very key level – A close above here and we are probably off to test the 2010 highs.
10,515: The intersection point between the top-to-bottom 85.4% fan line (green) and the bottom-up 50% fan line (Purple). This will be hard to break and would mean we are in a parabolic rise.
10,475 – 10,488: The Jan 21 Gap. If we break 10,425 then there is high chance that this gap will be filled.
10,425: The Intersection of the bottom of the 1921 resistance / support line, and the 78.6% top-to-bottom fan line. This should be tough to break through (it stopped the rise on Friday), unless it is done in the low-volume Sunday night futures market.
10,408: 61.8% retracement of the fall from Jan 19 to Feb 5.
10,366: 61.8% bottom up fan line (purple). A decent push below this and we are probably heading towards 10,157 (the 78.6% of the bottom-up.
10,310: 50% retracement of the fall from Jan 19 to Feb 5.
10,211: 38.2% retracement of the fall from Jan 19 to Feb 5.
10,174: 61.8% top-to-bottom fan line (green)
10,157: 78.6% bottom up fan line (purple)
The Dow Resistance Wall
So today started like every other Mutual Fund Monday – Overnight spike in the futures on low volume. It then spent the day being faded. It looks like the Dow had a lot of trouble breaking through the wall that it created from Mid November. Without decent up volume it will have difficulty breaking through this wall – see chart:
Dow Resistance wall
Make or Break time!!!
dow 122909
Updated chart above.
As you can see the dow broke out of the long term trend line and then came back to rest on it today.
If the breakout was a failed one, which is what I believe, then this would be very bearish and we should see a return to the yellow area. If the breakout is real then we shoulod head to the next Blue line (around 11,500).
Updated 5yr and 10yr charts below..
5 year
10 year
Long Term Dow resistance still holding
Updated dow Chart
LT Dow
