We are at an inflection point

  • June 26, 2010 1:04 pm

First look at this chart:

You should see that, on friday, we closed right at a major support level.  A drop below it and then that line becomes resistance, with the next major support well below current levels.  A key intersection point also hits us at the end of July.  A break below that intersection point would be devastating.

Now let us talk about a few things:

Astrology

Some excerpts from Arch Crawford’s recent interview (in May).

… view of the planets from New York City on Aug. 1, at 6am.We have the most planets in the tightest alignments and at the supposedly ’sensitive’ Zero degrees of Cardinal signs. It makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

I looked at records going back to the 1800’s, and this is the most difficult alignment I found.

… Worst cases include a nuclear accident. Nuclear war. Massive societal collapse. Maybe a pole flip, which can wipe out nearly everything.

… Our markets may be the least of our worries, given this powerful and chaotic frame. The Mormon mandate of keeping two years worth of food and water in your home is common sense.

Reading that is very scary.

The Lunar eclipse conjunct Pluto this weekend may contain the trigger that sets off the summers’ scary period.

From http://marketdirection.info

The notable feature of the lunar eclipse is the Moon’s conjunction with Pluto, with this point squared by Jupiter and Uranus. Jupiter and Uranus conjoin at the potent cardinal point of 0 Aries only 15 days before this eclipse. Such a spectacular T-square contains within it potent energies for reform and/or revolution against the status quo. The very energetic mix of Jupiter and Uranus in Aries shows the potential for proactive reform or explosive reactivity and revolution. Many astrological authors have spoken of the dynamic cardinal T-square in August 2010 which combines Saturn, Pluto, Uranus and Jupiter. This lunar eclipse is likely to be a precursor to that event.

So the crash could start next week with an initial move down

Also I noticed a post on Traders Talk that identifies that on June 24-27 mercury is cutting through the gigantic constallation, it’s kind of a mini T-square to the big one. Therefore there could be a maximum energy release in the market in that period.

Tech Analysis

These charts were kindly donated by M33 from the community lounge.

Elliot Waves

One possible scenario

June 25 EW Synth count

  • June 25, 2010 4:58 pm

Okay the bulls tried today and we went from a simple wave 2 correction to more of a flat.  Volume was dire for most of the day and then stepped up towards the end.  Most indexes ended up pretty flat today.  The Russell 2000, The Financials and the REIT’s ended the day well in the green.  Not sure what that says.   My count says “Black Monday”.  If we move above todays high then my count is wrong.  Charts below.

10 Min Count

30 minute Count

Hourly Count

Daily Count

Up Volume Ratio Averages

All Moving Averages (50,100 &200) are now pointing downwards.

Cumulative NYSE Advance Decline Line

Still looks like it is headed for the 100 Day SMA

Also a Bonus chart showing the 200 week and 50 week average on the Nasdaq.

June 24 EW Synth update

  • June 24, 2010 4:28 pm

This certainly is starting to feel like the start of a 3 down.  We just need some volume to confirm it.  I have quite a few charts to post tonight so I’ll post them and let them do the talking.  The charts tonight are: 2 min Count; 30 Min Count; Hourly Count; Daily Count; Monthly count; Alt 1 Count; Alt 2 Count; Cumulative NYSE Advance Decline; 100 DMA of NYSE up volume; Updated Fractal Chart; and Updated SPX channels.

.2 min Count

30 Min Count

Hourly Count

Daily Count

Monthly count

Alt 1 Count

Alt 2 Count

Cumulative NYSE Advance Decline

100 DMA of NYSE upvolume

Updated Fractal Chart

Updated SPX channels

June 23 EW Synth count update

  • June 23, 2010 3:37 pm

For a bear this was one of the least painful FOMC days for a while.  The lack of buying became apparent today.  It seemed lack of selling and short covering led the rallies.  My count is screaming bearish and if so we should face a very scary week ahead.  Count below.

Also – For those into Financial Astrology this weekend is particularly bad for the markets and its effect become active today.

2 Min Count

30 Min Count

Hourly Count

Daily Count

June 22 SP500 EW count

  • June 22, 2010 4:20 pm

Hard to count todays action, however the trend seems to be down – with some wild bounces along the way.  Here is my primary count.

[Update at 2017 - Adding 2 Alt counts at the end]

1 Min

30 Min Count

1 hour

Also adding the NYSE cumulative Advance Decline chart.  As you can see it has been retesting it 50 DMA.  I think it should now attempt to cross below its 100 DMA.

Also this is my top Alt count

And this is my secondary Alt Count

EW Update 21st June

  • June 21, 2010 5:01 pm

Today was odd.  Overnight ramp up because china may allow its currency to be more flexible.   A rally based on nothing.  Nobody appeared to want to buy it.  Volume was poor on any rallies today and not that brilliant on the sell-offs.  i think its time to stick a fork in this market.  Its done.

Some of the sub-waves in my synth count are getting a little convoluted and therefore there is still another chance of another Central Bank initiated rally, however I don’t think it will last long.  I’ll just publish the synth count tonight, although Alt 2 from Friday also looks good.  A few more days should clarify the count.

30 Min Count Update

Volume and a few other charts

  • June 19, 2010 11:20 am

Below is a chart of Up Volume as a percentage of total volume with just the 50 day SMA plotted.  It shows an interesting trend that i have been referring to as lack-of-buyer participation.

Also looking at the Cumulative NYSE Advance Decline you will see that it is back-testing its 50 day SMA

Looking at the NYAD with a Zig-Zag retrace also give a persepctive on the rise.  It looks as if the 5th wave completed in November 2008 and we have been in an A-B-C correction since then.

A similar analysis on the Equal Weighted SP500 also seems to the same waves.

SPX count update June 18

  • June 18, 2010 4:18 pm

That was a weird Opex day, to complete a weird Opex week.   A very low volume day in a low volume week.  Also 3 doji’s – does that sign the end of the rally.  I don’t know and am having severe doubts about my primary count.  I am therefore going to just publish my top 3 counts.  Next week will hopefully allow me to get rid of at least one of them.

Primary Count

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Also a bonus chart of todays down volume percentage

AUD/USD

  • June 17, 2010 6:19 pm

Some Channel Lines

  • June 17, 2010 5:03 pm