Russell 2000 Count for June 8th
For you TZA/TNA nuts…
30 Min
Hourly
Daily
Todays Synth Count Updated
Market Summary
We didn’t have a mutual fund Monday today. We did get quite a bit of dip buying though. I think Proverbs 26.11 is ’As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool repeats his folly’ and I think that summarizes my views on todays dip buyers. My updated counts below.
15 Minute Count
15 Minute
Hourly Count
Hourly
Daily Count
daily
As if it never happened!!!
Well we are back at the long term trend line again. I am not sure if we are backtesting it or if we are just going to zoom on through it, however we basically have wiped out last thursdays drop. The regulators and the Main Stream Media are now acting as if it never happened. Nothing-to-see-here-these-are-not-the-droids-you-are-looking-for. The chart…
EW Count update
Market Summary
Its is Magic-Manic-Monday so the stock market must be up. The answer – Yep. The groundhog day Tortoise rally continues. The only thing lacking is volume, which implies that we may be in a wave 5 or C. Divergencies are abound.
I am working on a new algorithmic trading system to work alongside the Elliot wave counts. The system is going to be called Morpheus – it hands out red pills (sell) and green pills (Buy) and hopefully will help confirm the appropriate counts. I am still working on this and so more on this as it evolves.
My counts are fairly consistent with Friday nights – I have updated them – which you can view below. On the count side I still like the highest probability Bear chart the most. This would imply 1 more thrust up and then a correction.
Bull Counts
Daily
Hourly Highest Probability
Bear Counts
Daily
Highest Probability Hourly
Best Alternative Hourly
Market Update and SP500 Elliot Wave Count
I watch too much CNBC. It is on most of the day and, most of the time, I find it annoying. Rah-Rah-equities-equities-gotta-buy-some-equities anybody would think that Jeff Immelt had told them all to gee up the stock market – tsk-tsk – put that tin-foil Hat away.
Anyway almost every guest I see on the show is pretty consistent. They all think that the market is going to climb back up again, and eventually get back to new highs. Even the previously Bearish guys are now bullish (“You can’t fight the Fed”, “Unprecedented Liquidity”, etc). Its almost like Buzz-Lightyear was running his own newsletter where all the indices are going to infinity.
This across-the-board bullishness is the only thing that keeps me as a bear.
Portugal was Downgraded this morning. Greece is going cap-in-hand to the IMF. Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and the UK will likely follow. Sovereign defaults will ripple rapidly into a breakdown of the Financial system and yet the stock Market continues its resilience. The Major Indices have been rising on pure liquidity and technical levels, since last July. Fundamentals left a long time ago. Once the liquidity goes and the market returns to a sensible level it should be rapid, however it does not need to happen soon. I’ll continue to do the Elliot Wave counts to help me understand when it is likely to happen. Today we had a drop of 0.48% on the Dow and 0.55% on the S&P500 – yipidee doo – not worth writing home about. Saying all that – today was an inside day.
An Inside day! Whats that? I hear you ask. It is a candlestick formation that occurs when the entire daily price range for a given index falls within the price range of the previous day. Inside day can be very useful for spotting changes in the direction of a trend.
An what does it mean? An inside day is often used to signal indecision because neither the bulls nor the bears are able to send the price beyond the range of the previous day. If an inside day is found at the end of a prolonged downtrend and is located near a level of support, it can be used to signal a bullish shift in trend. Conversely, an inside day found near the end of a prolonged uptrend may suggest that the rally is getting exhausted and is likely to reverse.
UltraBear View
The top probability count is that we completed Wave B of Z yesterday, which would mean a significant B wave down, followed by a C wave up to a new high, or a double top. Primary 3 down would then follow.
The next Alternative is that we completed Primary 2 yesterday with a wave 5 extension of c of z. We should now start to see some major declines.
Summary of the Fall and Rally is:
Bear Supercycle Updated
Ultra Bull View
Nothing changed on this count. Market will continue to melt-upwards in the wave 3, until the Fed cuts back on liquidity in two thousand and never.
Daily Chart updated
And the Supercycle Chart
Indicies at the top of exhaustion
You know what I think of the market at the moment – its going up every day whenever volume goes low. Volume generally to the sell side. there is a lot of distribution going on. Below are the indicies that are the most exhausted. Of course the market can still run on, even when exhausted, however when they get fatigued it will not be pretty. i have also thrown in the VIX, which is the opposite of the others.
Here they are, in no particular order:
Stomach Flu
I have been suffering from a bad stomach flu and so have not been charting today. Hopefully I will be back at the key board tommorrow.
Where next for the USO
First see chart..
USO
Then look at the two highlighted bits. If the USO falls back into the bear Channel then it could be heading for the teens. A sucessfull bounce would mean breaking out to challenge the current 52-week highs. I think it will fall back into the channel.
A quick look at Oil
An updated chart on the USO…
Whence next?
