This market is sitting under the sword of Damocles. It is happy gorging, laughing and partying and refuses to look up at the sword that is waiting to come crashing down. I think it will fall and it will fall this year. That over now to the charts…
First The SP500 Elliot Wave chart of the Entire Rally
Now a close up of the last waves (It is either over or needs another push up to 1155 – 1160).
Trading chart on the Russell 2000 (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Trading Chart on the XRT (Continues to push against the top of the exhaustion Zone)
Long Term Dow Industrials
Short Term Dow Industrials (has tried 3 times to get back into the Bear Channel – 4th Time should be the treat)
Long Term SPY
Short Term SPY (imitating Icarus)
Long Term VIX (Waiting for it to return into the LT Channel
I am just going to post updates on my top charts: Russell 2000, Dow Industrial, XRT, SPY and VIX. As far as the SP500 EW count goes – I’ll go with my earlier post from this morning – we are still in Primary 2 up (although in the final throes) – this recount will require quite a bit of work and so will come in a later post.
Okay Russell 2000 Trading chart – you can see it tried to push above the exhaustion zone today (on no volume) – unbelievable.
Now the Retail ETF XRT – same comments as yesterday
Now the Long Term Industrial
Now the 60 day Industrials
Now the Long Term SPY
And the 60 days SPY
And a new chart on the VIX – I am watching before re-posting an EW count on this.
Until I am clearer on the EW counts I am going to stick with the trading charts on these 2. Today both indicies hung at the top of their exhaustion zone. Volume was dire. Hardly anyone was interested in Selling however there was little interest in buyng at these price levels. I would expect a reversion to the 20 day EMA on these indexes.
First the Updated Russell 2000 chart
And now the updated XRT chart
Who would have thought it – Retail stocks went on a tear on Friday – and now look more overbought than ever before. My trading chart shows the index (XRT) at the far extent of exhaustion territory:
[Update at 6.15pm - Added the primary channel, which we hit the underside of today.]
I take my dog for a walk every day. I tend to use the same route, going past Abercrombie and Fitch, The Gap, Brookstone, etc. In General they have been pretty empty for the past few months and always seem to have a sale on. This is why I am constantly amazed at the rise of the retailers stocks. Today the XRT (Retail Index) hit the 78.6% retracement of the 2007 to 2008 decline. Reality should come home to bite pretty soon. Chart below.
