[Updated 9.14am 3/10 - Corrected a mistake in the Short term chart]
We are still in Primary 2 up – although in the final throes.
The initial stock decline of 2010 was Phase 1; the current rally will take stocks up to or slightly through the Jan highs. Then the more serious Phase 2 will begin; The Main stream media news will highlight the “buying opportunity”, the numbers will look great, it’s all fake – it’s all an illusion.
The current rally will absorb the first two weeks of March and possibly a few more, and then cede. Greece, Spain, UK, Toyota, US States debt, health care, weather and inflation come to mind for why it will end.
By July/August the financial crises will again be prominent, with revolts and either financial (protectionism/defaults) or physical war almost likely. Debt, taxation, and inflation are central. Inflation likely to briefly spurt with Oil possibly to exceed $100/barrel this spring. The powerlessness of those in power will come to the fore, and the pain of payment after overspending and underfunding real liabilities will be evident.
The charts are below.
Longer term chart
Short term Chart
