An interesting perspective on fib arcs
Some people think this chart a little bearish. Okay it is a bit bearish as it implies we are going to have a correction to around dow 7770. However it is nowhere near my longer term bearish targets, which for the first time I am putting out in a couple of charts. I have labelled the 5 Primary waves with P1 thru p5 for all you Elliot wave aficionados. First is the chart with a log scale:
And then just an arithmetic scale
Now that’s bearish!!!
This is the chart I put together last weekend with this weeks prices added. The key inflection points were all there.
Next week will confirm or deny this chart..
If you are wondering why the market seems to be acting like a drunk trying to get home. The chart below might explain it.
Basically it is a lethargic fight between Bears that have got burned too often versus Bulls who are running out of cash.
Dear Dad Fed,
Thank you so much for the 100+ Billion dollars that you gave lent me last year. Some of my friends (Goldman And SocGen mainly) were very happy and even started to play with me again. The only problem is that I seem to have lost it all. Can I have some more please?
Your ever loving Son,
AIG.
I like the google search feature, as it auto fills in the most popular searches based on what you have allready typed. I liked this one… I also liked the phrase “Why did the DOW go down last week after I ate a sandwich?” … Amazing what people will use for causality – must work for CNBC.
The day started well. A correction kicked in at the 70.7% Fib Fan line (Jan 19 to Feb 5 ref line) and miraculously went all the way back upto to the 78.6% Fan Line – which acted as a key level of resistance. It felt like another wave 2 up, following a wave 1 down this morning. Did I tell you I hate wave 2’s. Anyway here is my highest priority count chart…
I have updated the SPY Price Prediction chart with todays prices
Also here is a close up on the SP500 futures withe major fan lines. Highlighted is the H&S pattern. As you can see the market seems to want to backtest every breakthrough.
Okay. There are days when you are the dog and days when you are the fire hydrant. Today I feel very wet.
My earlier count became invalid as soon as we broke through where I had labeled “iv”. I am now unsure of the right count, although I am thinking that yet another 1-2 has occurred. The chart below breaks out the waves from todays action. I’ll use this to try and do a recount.
This could be just a minuette wave, however I am representing it as a minute wave, for now.
Confirmation tht we are in the 5th wave down of (iii) will be when we break through todays lows.
Well this certainly looks like the start of a (iii). I like wave 3’s. Looks like yesterdays anemic action was just to retest the fib fan.
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