Make or Break time!!!

  • December 29, 2009 4:07 pm
dow 122909

dow 122909

Updated chart above. 
As you can see the dow broke out of the long term trend line and then came back to rest on it today. 
If the breakout was a failed one, which is what I  believe, then this would be very bearish and we should see a return to the yellow area.  If the breakout is real then we shoulod head to the next Blue line (around 11,500).
Updated 5yr and 10yr charts below..
5 year

5 year

10 year

10 year

Long Term Dow resistance still holding

  • December 20, 2009 3:20 pm

Updated dow Chart

LT Dow

LT Dow

Lack of crash watch

  • December 12, 2009 3:15 pm

First of all a quick updated 1921 til now chart.  trend lines still intact.

dji 1921 to now

dji 1921 to now

 

Now a zoom into the last 5 years:

Dow 5 years

Dow 5 years

And finally a look at the last 60 days
dow 60 days

dow 60 days

Okay so we are no longer in the imenent crash zone (between the two yellow line on the 5 year), however the dow is hitting major resistance at the new bubble zone (the two blue lines on the 5 year).  As you can see on the 60 day the dow has basically spent the last month trying to break into the new bubble zone.  The next few weeks are known for low volume so getting into the blue zone is possible, however momentum is ebbing and a return to retest the yellow zone is possible.  AKA I dont know.

Quick update on the Russell 2000

  • December 12, 2009 9:44 am

Latest chart..

Russell 2000

Russell 2000

Now is the time that tests all traders, both bull and bear.  We are in a narrow range within a primary 2 wave up.  Have we seen the high? I thought so, however, even a bear such as myself is having doubts.  I think the best course of action is to play the range, until a the market picks a direction.