Many people were recently impressed by the prediction of Abby Joseph Cohen, of Goldman Sachs, that the S&P would be at 1,100 by year end. I thought it would be worth looking at some of her recent predictions.
In an August 10, 2007 appearance on CNBC Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 would rally to 1,600 by December. – Wrong
In December 2007 Abby Joseph Cohen predicted the S&P 500 index would reach 1,675 in 2008. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741.02 by November 2008. – Wrong
On May 1st, 2009 Abby Joseph Cohen predicted, “The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may jump 20 percent to 1,050 over the next six to 12 months as investors buy stocks trading at low valuations” – Near enough, so Correct.
On August 6th, 2009 Abby Joseph Cohen declared, “the new bull market has begun,” and proclaimed Goldman Sachs sees the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index .SPX in a range of 1,050-1,100 toward year-end. The S&P 500 index traded around 1,000 on August 6th, 2009, after a 50% run-up from the year’s low. – We will see.
So out of the 3 recent predictions that can be verified 2 out of 3 were wrong. Paraphrasing Meatloaf : 1 out of 3 is bad. based on her prior predictions I would put the chances of her recent prediction being correct at less than 50% – which makes her less useful than tossing a coin.
