A PART OF NY A Macro View on the minutiae

In the general Everything-is-good-everything-is-great euphoria of the markets this week I forgot to translate the minutes of the FOMC into normal-speak.  Here goes:

“In the forecast prepared for the June meeting, the staff revised upward its outlook for economic activity during the remainder of 2009 and for 2010.”  – Please place your head in the sand, listen to our words, ignore what you see going on around you.

“Consumer spending appeared to have stabilized since the start of the year, sales and starts of new homes were flattening out, and the recent declines in capital spending did not look as severe as those that had occurred around the turn of the year.” – Consumer spending and capital spending are still going down. 

“Recent declines in payroll employment and industrial production, while still sizable, were smaller than those registered earlier in 2009.” – Unemployment is rising, Indutrial Production is declining.

“Household wealth was higher, corporate bond rates had fallen, the value of the dollar was lower, the outlook for foreign activity was better, and financial stress appeared to have eased somewhat more than had been anticipated in the staff forecast prepared for the prior FOMC meeting. The projected boost to aggregate demand from these factors more than offset the negative effects of higher oil prices and mortgage rates. “  – The stock market went up.  This might mean things are getting better.  The Dollar is looking a bit dodgy though – I wonder why?

“The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. The staff also revised up its projection for the increase in real GDP in 2010, to a pace above the growth rate of potential GDP. As a consequence, the staff projected that the unemployment rate would rise further in 2009 but would edge down in 2010. ” – GDP will be down for the 2nd quarter then magically get better – you are feeling sleepy – your eyes are closing – all is going to get better – please go out and spend some money.

“Meanwhile, the staff forecast for inflation was marked up. Recent readings on core consumer prices had come in a bit higher than expected; in addition, the rise in energy prices, less-favorable import prices, and the absence of any downward movement in inflation expectations led the staff to raise its medium-term inflation outlook. Nonetheless, the low level of resource utilization was projected to result in an appreciable deceleration in core consumer prices through 2010.”  – Oil and other speculative  dollar hedges are going up, whilst almost everything else is being hit by deflationary forces.

“Looking ahead to 2011 and 2012, the staff anticipated that financial markets and institutions would continue to recuperate, monetary policy would remain stimulative, fiscal stimulus would be fading, and inflation expectations would be relatively well anchored. Under such conditions, the staff projected that real GDP would expand at a rate well above that of its potential, that the unemployment rate would decline significantly, and that overall and core personal consumption expenditures inflation would stay low.” – We hope that everything is going to get better next year.  Not sure how though.  Better to have a glass half full analysis though, when you have no idea about what is going to happen next. That might get people to start spending and taking risk again.  We can then repeat this crisis in a few years time with new politicians and Fed staff.