As we noted in our weekend forecast for the SP500:
“we should finish the uptrend (Minuette (ii) of [iii]) on Monday or Tuesday somewhere between 1067 and 1082. We can then start minuette (iii) of [iii], which should be a doozy.”
This happened today. based on this I think we finished minuette (ii) of minute [iii] of minor 1 of Intermediate (1) of Primary [3] and we have now entered (iii) of [iii] – confirmation will be when we break through Friday’s low. Alternatively there is still a chance that today was the b wave of (ii) – If so we should get a c wave back into the resistance zone (1067-1082) tommorrow, and then start (iii). Which ever of the counts is accurate the trend is now down and any rally should be taken as a further bear opportunity.
Updated chart with my highest probability count below..
SP500 Elliot Wave Primary 3
Now if we are in (iii) we should get a some major downward pressure quickly. I’ll start to work on some projections for the next several sub waves.
If you have read my earlier posts on the EUR/USD you will know that I have a 1.27 target on the pair, for sometime in the first half of 2010. I realize that that is fairly useless from a trading perspective. I have therefore put together a much shorter term analysis…
EUR/USD
The above chart shold show the primary support and resistance levles to 1.27. Good Luck!
Just updating the charts. The targets remain the same (see Summary of Market Calls). First the 5 year with trading plan.
5 year RUT.x
And the past couple of weeks…
Russell 2000
Target remains at 95.00, an updated chart below..
GOLD
For a summary of this and other Target please go to Summary of Market calls
In our last post on AIG we were expecting a breakout from its triangle. The breakout has occurred so we can select our Target price. Chart below:
AIG
Target price is now 11 to 12.50 (although there may be a retest of the triangle first).
In our last post on CREE we said that we considered that the stock had topped (at 64). Now is the time to assign a target of where we think its next intermediate bottom will be. First the chart:
CREE 02/07
Our Target is now 24.65 (with some bumps along the way). Why 24 bucks I hear you ask. CREE is a momentum stock. If momentum stocks stop going up then they are sold. Momentum traders also bought a lot of gold, oil, AIG, C, BAC, AAPL, AMZN – these have started to down causing Margin calls. Selling begets selling. The two major support lines are 39.45 and 24.65. I think both need testing.
Target remains at 0.72, with a pause at 0.8. Updated chart below:
AUD/USD
Target remains 1.27, updated chart below:
EUR/USD
First the chart:
SPY Target
Okay, based on my flimsy Tech Analysis, I think the current bounce will end Monday or Tuesday, somewhere between 106.57 and 108.21. This should be followed by a steep decline to 101.28 (or below).
First the chart..
EW Count for Intermediate 1 of Primary 3 down
If this count is correct (remember it is all probabilities) the we should finish the uptrend (Minuette (ii) of [iii]) on Monday or Tuesday somewhere between 1067 and 1082. We can then start minuette (iii) of [iii], which should be a doozy.
